A quick market update, futures levels have been trending lower over the last month with exports behind pace and slightly higher projected carryout for 2023. The March USDA supply and demand report has corn carry out projected at 1.308 million bushels vs 1.267 in February and soybean carryout projected at 220 million bushels vs 225 million in February . Basis levels continue to push lower with exports being lackluster at best along with domestic demand having most of their needs covered up through May. At this time Illinois corn is being shipped to Mexico & West Texas to cover their needs and Minnesota/Iowa corn is being shipped to Idaho/California to cover their needs. Nebraska corn is currently staying in its local markets due to high basis cost. Argentina’s weather forecast for corn pollination looks for above normal temps, highs in the mid 90’s vs normal is mid 80’s also much drier than normal with scattered rains in the forecast.
My takeaway is look for futures market to trend sideways to lower over the next month until we get into a more weather driven corn and soybean market. Managing risk is as important as ever with growing one of the most expensive crops we ever have. Know where you are profitable, get working orders in the system to capture your targets. Please contact your Aurora grain merchandiser with any questions you have.
Weston Winkers, Grain Merchandiser